You may want to read this post again
http://www.ennisjack.com/index.php?topic=1783.msg25483#msg25483"I don't see any reason for this media created horse race. The only reason to predict/root for a loss for a film that has won the DGA, PGA, WGA, Globe, BFCA, BAFTA, the public imagination, big bog office, and the most Critics Awards is a reason known as wishful thinking. I know of no case of a film with this much of a haul losing the Best Picture crown to a film with barely any haul at all. So if you're predicting this upset/or rooting for it it means you either:
a) like Crash better. Which is fine. But maybe you should watch both films again? I'm just sayin'....
or
b) or you are just rooting against Brokeback. Which is a more significant problem. This means either
1) You're bored. Fine. There have been many "locked" contenders in Oscar history. You'll survive. Maybe next year will be more exciting... (believe me I know the feeling)
2) You think Munich or Capote or Good Night are the best. Fine. But you know those films aren't going to win so why root against Brokeback?
3) You're one of those people who think subject matter is all (never mind execution) and think terrorism or racism or McCarthyism are more important than the plight of two men in love in a world that condemns them. If you're one of these people I can't help you. And if you're one of those people who can't see that all four of those themes are basically conjoined under the larger "man's inhumanity to man" heading, I can't help you either. But that's beside the point. Subject matter never made anything the "best". It can help get people on your side but it isn't a qualitative measure.
or
4) you're struggling with some homophobia.
I realize saying #4 out loud will attract the haters. But I have to think that that's some of the resistance to this film's success. Hear me out before getting too riled up. I can't come up with any other way (and I've tried to work through scenarios) that this film could lose.
Oscarwatch floated the idea earlier that Crash could win if people vote with their hearts. But Brokeback is hardly a cold exercize. It's a tearjerker itself. So that reason doesn't wash. This is not a cold Scorsese biopic vs. a four-hankie intimate drama like last year or the year of Raging Bull vs. Ordinary People. Roger Ebert claims its all about Crash's momentum. But momentum usually applies to the newer film that is currently all the rage (BBM)
What we have is a film (BBM) with DGA + PGA + WGA+ GLOBE + CRITICS + PUBLIC + BAFTA + BOX OFFICE up against a film (Crash) with only a couple of prizes of note (SAG, ACE, WGA) and an earlier release date. I can't see any way Brokeback loses unless it's through people actively voting against it rather than for something else. Thus suggesting homophobia."