Unfortunately, I'm afraid that for the reasons given in the LA Weekly article Brokeback will have a pretty hard time at the Oscars.
It looks like the most likely beneficiary of this hidden prejudice will be Crash, and that'll tick me off even further. As much as I love Brokeback, I'm under no illusions that it's a perfect movie. I think that Crash, however, was pretty flawed, especially from a storytelling point of view (I'm what could be called a wannabe writer - lots written, nothing published
- so I arrogantly imagine I know about these things). It seemed to rely far too much on unlikely coincidence piled on top of unlikely coincidence: a really cheap out in writing, pretty similar to the 'and then I woke up, it was all a dream' stories that kids write. Add to that I guessed what would happen. This is really bad: I'm notorious for never getting these things (I once even didn't guess the murderer in an Agatha Christie TV movie I'd seen before).
I haven't seen any of the other Best Picture nominees, so I can't make a judgement on them, but if the increasing buzz that Crash will win is true, because of prejudice or anything else, I think it'll be nothing short of larceny.
Oh, and in keeping with the gloomy tome of this post, I predict Brokeback will only win one Oscar, Ang Lee for Best Director. Of course, I hope for all eight...