OK..cowgirls and cowboys..Oscar is only less than 2 weeks.
We are keeping everything possible crossed. Biting fingernails & toenails, trying to get TV and computer close to each other for March 5th.
Here is a report for the Oscar Countdown.
http://www.thefilmexperience.net/Awards/2005/oscar_countdown.htmlDay 12 - BBM vs. Crash
I've avoided the Brokeback Mountain vs. Crash debate largely because I saw it coming and it bored me ahead of time. Like a few other notably smart oscarwatchers I said several times that once Crash won the SAG ensemble prize (a win that was never in doubt for me since October) people would freak and suggest that Crash would pull a Shakepeare on Brokeback's Privates. I saw it coming. But what I didn't see coming was the fervor with which some people would start selling and believing this story (against all laws of awards logic) as 'it's going to happen' rather than 'what an upset that would be!'
I think it all started when the anti-BBM brigade got what they saw as a huge boost in the surprise snub of the cowboys in the Editing race. And while it did sting (especially because Geraldine Peroni was a marvelous editor and that would've been a sweet way to bid her adieu) it wasn't the death blow that people made it out to be. While it's true that no film has won the Best Picture Oscar without an editing nomination in 25 years it's been just as long since a film with a nomination total of 6 or less (like Crash) has won. Those statistics both converge at Ordinary People, thereby cancelling each other out, don'cha think?
Nevertheless lots of folks want there to be a race. And a tight one at that. Normally I take no issue with such a desire. I like a good contest, too. But this year I'm very much partial to the frontrunner so I'm less enthused about a battle royale. Frankly, while I respect that Crash has beautiful moments it also has significant problems. It needs a high chair (placed on top of a fireman's ladder?) to even make eye contact with Ang Lee's wonder. Therefore my feeling is this: I wish the media would shut up about "Crash's momentum". It's great to root for the underdog when the underdog is deserving and the frontrunner is less so (which is admittedly the case as often as not). A win for Crash in another year would be fine if completely overstating its worth, but why shoot film history in the foot? Brokeback is going in the books with or without the gold statue...so why pray for Oscar to muck this one up?
I don't see any reason for this media created horse race. The only reason to predict/root for a loss for a film that has won the DGA, PGA, WGA, Globe, BFCA, BAFTA, the public imagination, big bog office, and the most Critics Awards is a reason known as wishful thinking. I know of no case of a film with this much of a haul losing the Best Picture crown to a film with barely any haul at all. So if you're predicting this upset/or rooting for it it means you either:
a) like Crash better. Which is fine. But maybe you should watch both films again? I'm just sayin'....
or
b) or you are just rooting against Brokeback. Which is a more significant problem. This means either
1) You're bored. Fine. There have been many "locked" contenders in Oscar history. You'll survive. Maybe next year will be more exciting... (believe me I know the feeling)
2) You think Munich or Capote or Good Night are the best. Fine. But you know those films aren't going to win so why root against Brokeback?
3) You're one of those people who think subject matter is all (never mind execution) and think terrorism or racism or McCarthyism are more important than the plight of two men in love in a world that condemns them. If you're one of these people I can't help you. And if you're one of those people who can't see that all four of those themes are basically conjoined under the larger "man's inhumanity to man" heading, I can't help you either. But that's beside the point. Subject matter never made anything the "best". It can help get people on your side but it isn't a qualitative measure.
or
4) you're struggling with some homophobia.
I realize saying #4 out loud will attract the haters. But I have to think that that's some of the resistance to this film's success. Hear me out before getting too riled up. I can't come up with any other way (and I've tried to work through scenarios) that this film could lose.
Oscarwatch floated the idea earlier that Crash could win if people vote with their hearts. But Brokeback is hardly a cold exercize. It's a tearjerker itself. So that reason doesn't wash. This is not a cold Scorsese biopic vs. a four-hankie intimate drama like last year or the year of Raging Bull vs. Ordinary People. Roger Ebert claims its all about Crash's momentum. But momentum usually applies to the newer film that is currently all the rage (BBM)
What we have is a film (BBM) with DGA + PGA + WGA+ GLOBE + CRITICS + PUBLIC + BAFTA + BOX OFFICE up against a film (Crash) with only a couple of prizes of note (SAG, ACE, WGA) and an earlier release date. I can't see any way Brokeback loses unless it's through people actively voting against it rather than for something else. Thus suggesting homophobia.
In case you think this is personal prejudice speaking --Let me throw another example at you. I didn't think Schindler's List was the best film of 1993 (my vote would have been with The Piano) But had Schindler's List actually lost after reaping every prize in the known universe as well as the public's support, one would have had to suspect anti-semitism at play. Because how else could a juggernaut like that be toppled? Think on it. You see what I mean? No one is anti-semitic for preferring another 1993 film to Schindler's List just like nobody is homophobic for preferring Crash to Brokeback. (Again, subject matter not being qualitative) But if a majority group within a 6000 person voting pool suddenly turned against a juggernaut like Schindler's which no other similar or even more adventurous group had voted against? There's a problem there other than people liking some other film better. Liking something better will always be fine as reasons go...but if that's the reason it would have happened earlier in some visible form.
David Poland wrote earlier this week:
"I'm not sure what prospect is scarier to me, Brokeback Mountain winning Best Picture and watching a wave of journalists foolishly pronounce the climate for Gay America via Hollywood to be greatly improved or to see it lose to Crash and to listen to the same people whine about homophobia in Hollywood..."
This comment alarmed me. I agree with the first part. Brokeback's success won't mean that Hollywood has embraced the gays. There are still plenty of films with homophobic elements made. Homophobia is a classic American tradition
It's not going away anytime soon. But the second half is way off base. Again, if you look at Oscar history this film is too. big. to. lose. So if by some miracle it does we're talking about an upset of unprecedented proportions. There would have to be a reason for that fluke. The reason would have to be homophobia, because at this point that's the only motivation strong enough to obliterate every rule of Oscar season. If it were simply a matter of people preferring another film, again, you would have seen it earlier. And other upsets of such epic proportions would have happened in the past.
They really haven't. Even Chariots of Fire toppling Reds or Shakespeare in Love toppling Saving Private Ryan had earlier indicators that such a triumph was possible (be it major wins at the Globes outside of Best Picture, Drama or what not.)
I hope you get me on this. I'm not attempting to be "controversial" but once you reach a certain level of awards mass it becomes difficult to explain a loss of such a magnitude --or rather a suggested loss of such magnitude. So I wonder why some people are so insistent on suggesting it. And should it miraculously come to pass, the reasons behind it would be very sad indeed.
But then... I've just written a million words about a moot point. Because Brokeback is not going to lose, now, is it?
-Nathaniel R
