Just read this article also posted in News Coverage and I will post some of them here to ease your anxiety.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11480804/"The meaning of SAG
But which movie will win? If history means anything: “Brokeback.”
(Hope "Crash" enjoyed that best performance by a cast award at the SAG awards, because that prize is not given out at the Oscars.)
This year “Brokeback” won the Directors Guild Award (DGA), the Producers Guild Award (PGA), and the Golden Globe. Since 1989, when the PGA came into existence, nine pictures have won all of these awards and eight of the nine — “Dances with Wolves,” “Schindler’s List,” “Forrest Gump,” “The English Patient,” “Titanic,” “American Beauty,” “Chicago” and “Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” — have gone on to win the Academy Award for best picture. The one that didn’t? “Saving Private Ryan,” in what is still a head-scratcher. Apparently the Weinsteins lobbied hard for “Shakespeare in Love,” and as anyone who has ever looked at our laws knows, lobbying works. Ads work. People are dumb.
Exhibit A: Word from Hollywood is that “Crash,” of all films, is making an 11th hour run at the title. According to L.A. Weekly’s Nikki Finke, older Academy members are shying from viewing “Brokeback” for the usual homophobic reasons. But then she writes this:
That “Brokeback” isn’t the Oscar favorite may have been foreshadowed at the SAG awards, when “Crash” topped it for best picture and Philip Seymour Hoffman won over Heath Ledger.
First, “Crash” didn’t top anything for best picture. There is no best picture at SAG. What “Crash” won was “Outstanding performance by a cast in a motion picture.” Second, winning the cast award at SAG is not exactly an accurate indicator of what will win the Academy Award for best picture. SAG has given the cast award nine times, and only four of those pictures have gone on to win the Academy’s best picture. Last year, for example, “Sideways” won the cast award.
In other words, if “Brokeback” doesn’t win it’s either a triumph for advertising or homophobia. Either way, the Academy looks bad. "