Thanks to Toadily for posting these in the News Coverage. http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/01/13/DDG9HGJ9II34.DTL"...WILL WIN: Although Hoffman deservedly will corral a share of the votes, look for Ledger to take home the prize.
SHOULD WIN: Ledger, because he's simply unforgettable....."
When the 63rd annual Golden Globes are dispersed, it will be the first time the award show airs on a Monday night in 12 years on NBC. The star-studded ceremony was moved from Sunday so "it wouldn't be in direct competition with the NFL playoffs," said Wendy Luckenbill, the network's vice president of entertainment publicity.
For those who follow movies more avidly than football, the Golden Globes are in a league of their own -- the most important playoff on the road to the Academy Awards. The Globes have an 80 percent accuracy rate forecasting the Oscars' best picture pick, an impressive statistic even if it is skewed by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, the group behind the Golden Globes, dividing the best-picture categories into drama and musical or comedy, thereby doubling the number of winners.
In a year in which the Oscar race is wide open, those who take home a Globe will have an advantage for the really big prize. Members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences have to cast their ballots for Oscar nominations by Jan. 21, so they're sure to be keeping score Monday night.
Belying its past reputation of being a tad too cozy with the Hollywood establishment, the foreign press nominated five independent films for best drama, each made for less than $30 million. Pricey big studio entries such as "King Kong," "Munich," "Memoirs of a Geisha" and "Cinderella Man" were passed over in the process.
This crop of nominees most closely resembles the 1997 show when art house films like "Shine," "Secrets and Lies," "Fargo" and "The English Patient" dominated the slate. While Luckenbill denies that NBC is concerned about ratings, historically audiences for movie award shows are smaller when fewer people have seen the nominated films. It's like watching the Tony awards when you aren't familiar with any of the plays.
Nominated films like "Brokeback Mountain," "Match Point" and "Mrs. Henderson Presents" have yet to open in most parts of the country. "The Squid and the Whale," up for best musical or comedy, has taken in less than $5 million, and it was released months ago. In the best-drama category, "The Constant Gardener" is the highest grosser, bringing in nearly $35 million. That's peanuts compared to "King Kong," which is lugging toward a gorilla-size $200 million.
Besides easing the way to Oscar glory, a win Monday is sure to boost box-office interest. Look for distributors to take out splashy ads proclaiming Golden Globe recipients. What will those advertisements say? Here are my fearless predictions of the winners, along with my opinion of the most deserving.
Picture, drama
NOMINEES: "Brokeback Mountain," "The Constant Gardener," "Good Night, and Good Luck," "A History of Violence," "Match Point."
WILL WIN: "Brokeback Mountain," a standout even in this distinguished company.
SHOULD WIN: "Brokeback Mountain," because it was made with such care and compassion and because the subject matter couldn't be timelier.
Actor, drama
NOMINEES: Russell Crowe ("Cinderella Man''), Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Capote''), Terrence Howard ("Hustle & Flow''), Heath Ledger ("Brokeback Mountain''), David Strathairn ("Good Night, and Good Luck'').
WILL WIN: Although Hoffman deservedly will corral a share of the votes, look for Ledger to take home the prize.
SHOULD WIN: Ledger, because he's simply unforgettable.
Director
NOMINEES: Woody Allen ("Match Point''), George Clooney ("Good Night, and Good Luck''), Peter Jackson ("King Kong''), Ang Lee ("Brokeback Mountain''), Fernando Meirelles ("The Constant Gardener''), Steven Spielberg ("Munich'').
WILL WIN: Lee, as close to a global director as Hollywood has.
SHOULD WIN: Lee, as much for the range of his work as the subtlety he displays in "Brokeback."
Screenplay
NOMINEES: Woody Allen ("Match Point''), George Clooney and Grant Heslov ("Good Night, and Good Luck''), Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco ("Crash''), Tony Kushner and Eric Roth ("Munich''), Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana ("Brokeback Mountain'').
WILL WIN: McMurtry and Ossana, to round out "Brokeback's" sweep or near sweep.
SHOULD WIN: McMurtry and Ossana, for fleshing out Annie Proulx's memorable short story and especially for breathing life into the main characters' wives, who were mere asides in the story.
From TV Guidehttp://online.tvguide.com/special/goldenglobes06/movie.aspTV guide (for what it's worth) thinks BBM sweeps
Poll