SF chronicle predicts Brokeback Win
by Ruth Stein
"Brokeback Mountain" may soon join a distinguished group of best-picture Oscar winners that includes "Lawrence of Arabia," "Casablanca," "Grand Hotel," "The Apartment," "Tom Jones," "Schindler's List" and "Midnight Cowboy." These movies have more in common than holding up admirably over time. They're also fueled by great performances that failed to be recognized with a single Academy Award. Although "Brokeback" scored nominations for best actor and best supporting actor and actress, it doesn't look promising for wins in any of these categories. This is due to heavy competition and also to a desire to spread the bald-headed little gold guys around.
With the sheepherders' love story positioned to take all the other major awards, the only real races are in the acting divisions and between George Clooney and, well, George Clooney. The undisputed winner as best Hollywood schmoozer is up for best director and original screenplay for "Good Night, and Good Luck" and best supporting actor for "Syriana."
Who will leave the Kodak Theatre with a shiny statuette in hand? Here's where I'd put my money.
Best Picture
"Brokeback Mountain," "Capote," "Crash," "Good Night, and Good Luck," "Munich."
Will win: "Brokeback Mountain" is such a sure thing that you can turn off your TV before this final category is announced. Once considered a risk to make because of the gay subject matter, the film has shown that audiences outside of big cities aren't as provincial as Hollywood sometimes thinks. "Brokeback," which could hit the $100 million mark at the box office, deserves all the attention and accolades its getting. I fearlessly predict it will hold its own with the very best of the best picture winners.
Actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote"; Terrence Howard, "Hustle & Flow"; Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mountain"; Joaquin Phoenix, "Walk the Line"; David Strathairn, "Good Night, and Good Luck."
Will win: Hoffman, although it breaks my heart to say so because it's not the way I'd vote. No one can deny that he nailed Truman Capote. Hoffman has the voice, the fluttery mannerisms and the unmistakable air of being Capote. Plus the "Capote" star gained momentum from his Screen Actors Guild and Golden Globes win. But Ledger's is the performance for the ages. He created a character from the inside out and never made a move that didn't seem exactly right. I had almost rationalized that Ledger could come out on top of the vote of the full 5,798 members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences -- a far larger body than those who awarded Hoffman his previous wins. But Ledger didn't help his cause by acting goofy onstage at the SAG awards. He got the giggles reading off the teleprompter. The motion he made with his hand on his hip looked like "some kind of gay spoof" to the Los Angeles Times, to whom Ledger offered an apology. "I've stood like this since I was a kid. It's nerves, I guess," he told the paper. Meanwhile Hoffman has done everything right -- smart acceptance speeches, low-key but active campaigning for the Oscar. And everybody in the business has enormous respect for him.
Actress
Judi Dench, "Mrs. Henderson Presents"; Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica"; Keira Knightley, "Pride & Prejudice"; Charlize Theron, "North County"; Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line."
Will win: Witherspoon. Her determined march to the podium of the Kodak seems like the approach her overachieving character in "Election" would have taken. It would be obnoxious except for the fact that Witherspoon deserves the prize. She stole "Walk the Line" from its ostensible star, and her powerful portrayal of June Carter is about the only thing worth remembering from this by-the-numbers biopic. In a weak year for actresses -- you'd have to go back a while to find a strong slate in this category -- Witherspoon's only real competition is Golden Globe winner Huffman, who has Harvey Weinstein working full throttle on her behalf. But it's unlikely he will be able to finagle an Oscar for her as he did for Gwyneth Paltrow, Juliette Binoche and Dame Judi in past races.
Supporting actor
George Clooney, "Syriana"; Matt Dillon, "Crash"; Paul Giamatti, "Cinderella Man"; Jake Gyllenhaal, "Brokeback Mountain"; William Hurt, "A History of Violence."
Will win: Clooney. It's a tight race between Clooney and Giamatti, who won the SAG award and could benefit from the academy wanting to make amends for snubbing him in "Sideways." But academy members are hardly immune to Clooney's charms and will want to give him something, and it isn't going to be the directing prize. This is his best shot. Be aware, however, that the supporting acting categories have a habit of turning up surprise winners. Remember Jim Broadbent and Marcia Gay Harden? So don't rule out Dillon, who has a last-minute surge of interest in "Crash" going for him.
Supporting actress
Amy Adams, "Junebug"; Catherine Keener, "Capote"; Frances McDormand, "North Country"; Rachel Weisz, "The Constant Gardener"; Michelle Williams, "Brokeback Mountain."
Will win: Weisz. I admit that her Golden Globe win surprised me, but when she snagged the SAG award I could see a trend. She is certainly deserving. Her performance was the heart and soul of "The Constant Gardener," another movie that didn't get the recognition it should have from the academy. Having twice gushed on national TV about her love for director Darren Aronofsky, one wonders what she will say about the father of her baby-to-be in her Oscar speech. Because of the quirkiness of this category (see above), there's a chance we may not find out. Her strongest competitor is Williams. But Adams is slowly gaining momentum, and hearing her name called out would register high on the surprise-o-meter.
Director
Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain"; Bennett Miller, "Capote"; Paul Haggis, "Crash"; George Clooney, "Good Night, and Good Luck"; Steven Spielberg, "Munich."
Will win: Lee. With the Directors Guild and every other award for which he was eligible competing for space on Lee's mantel, this is more like a coronation than a contest. The best part is that besides being a director of enormous vision Lee is also one of the nicest guys in a business not known for niceness. Look for a much-deserved standing ovation.
Foreign film
"Don't Tell," Italy; "Joyeux Noel," France; "Paradise Now," Palestinian territories; "Sophie Scholl -- The Final Days," Germany; "Tsotsi," South Africa.
Will win: "Tsotsi." As the recipient of audience awards at the Toronto, Edinburgh and Los Angeles film festivals, the South African entry (opening in the Bay Area on March 10) is a known crowd pleaser. Based on a book by the esteemed playwright Athol Fugard, it also has an impressive pedigree. The film's main competitor is "Paradise Now," which is embroiled in a controversy that could hurt its chances. Jewish organizations and diplomats from Israel are lobbying for it not to be considered as coming from "Palestine" on the grounds that the Palestinian Authority is not yet a state.
Adapted screenplay
Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana, "Brokeback Mountain"; Dan Futterman, "Capote"; Jeffrey Caine, "The Constant Gardener"; Josh Olson, "A History of Violence"; Tony Kushner and Eric Roth, "Munich."
Will win: McMurtry and Ossana. The two took a short story -- admittedly a very good short story -- and fleshed it out into an unforgettable saga of lost love. What's impressive about the list of nominees is that in another year any of them could have won and would have deserved to. That's something to hang on to in a time when the writing in most screenplays is so pedestrian.
Original screenplay
Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco, "Crash"; George Clooney and Grant Heslov, "Good Night, and Good Luck"; Woody Allen, "Match Point"; Noah Baumbach, "The Squid and the Whale"; Stephen Gaghan, "Syriana."
Will win: Haggis and Moresco. This is a tough call because of the Clooney factor. But as good as "Good Night, and Good Luck" is, much of it is taken from real-life transcripts from the 1950s, while "Crash" is startlingly original.
For a complete list of my Oscar predictions, check the ballot in Datebook on Sunday.
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